What winning online poker comes down to is making the right decision. He who makes the correct decision time and time again gains value on every hand he plays. He who makes mistakes gives such value up. This above statement can also be translated this way: he who always acts on positive EV wins a little bit on every hand, he who acts on negative EV loses a little bit on every hand. It’s obvious that the EV is the best indictor of whether or not your decision is a correct one. The question is, how can you tell if the EV is on your side or not in any given situation?

The Expected Value is influenced by two variables: the amount of money one needs to bet in correlation with the amount of money one hopes to win, and probabilities involved in the event he wagers on. Translated to poker, this means your EV is given by the relationship between your pot odds and the likelihood of yours being the best hand at the table. You need to compare these two variables in order to learn what you should do form a mathematical point of view.

Your pot odds are fairly easy to calculate. If there’s a $50 pot and you need to make a $10 call in order to stay in the hand, your pot odds are 50-10, that is 5-1. If suppose you have a four card flush on the flop and are looking to catch another card to fill you up (in which case you’re quite certain to possess the best hand at the table) the odds of your making your flush are 4.22-1 against. These are better than your pot odds so yes, calling that bet would be the right decision here.

How do you calculate the odds of hitting the hand you’re looking for? It’s quite simple really. It is based on the number of outs you have. Considering that there are 52 cards in a deck, out of which 13 are of the same suit and there are 2 cards in your possession and 3 on the board, it means there will be a 47 card deck left in which 9 cards would help you make your flush and 38 won’t. The odds here are 38-9 against which is the same as 4.22-1.

While this reasoning gives you a great mathematical lead on what type of move you need to make, always remember that the mathematically correct way may not always be the optimal way in poker. Based on the reads you have on your opponents and on your poker skills, you may want to adopt a different route. Finding the near perfect balance between what mathematics recommend and what you know is right is the key to winning Texas Holdem.